FORMATION AND STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF INITIAL DISTURBANCE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG （2008） The formation of a tropical cyclone is the result of a process in which an initial disturbance evolves into a warm-core low-pressure system;however,the origin of the initial disturbance and the features of the initial fields are overlooked in most existing theories.In this study,based on FY-2C brightness temperature data and the Japan reanalysis dataset,the origin and evolution of the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Fung-Wong(2008) were examined.The results demonstrated that the initial disturbance emerged within a saddle-type field with large vertical tropospheric wind shear.The vertical wind shear decreased with the adjustment of the upper circulation;moreover,accompanied by convection over the warm section around the upper cold vortex,it provided favorable thermal and dynamic conditions for the development of a tropical vortex.During its development,the zone of associated positive relative vorticity strengthened and descended from the mid-troposphere to lower levels.This rapid strengthening of lower-level vorticity was due to increasing convergence related to the intensification of the pressure gradient southwest of the subtropical high.This indicated that the upper cold vortex and West Pacific subtropical high played very important roles in this case.
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.
INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE INTENSITY OF SOUTH ASIAN HIGH The characteristics and possible physical mechanism of interdecadal variation of the intensity of the South Asian High(SAH) in summer are analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST) data.The results indicate that a remarkable interdecadal transition occurred in the late1970 s that increased the intensity of SAH,or,an abrupt climate change was around 1978.A comparative analysis between the weak and strong period of the SAH intensity shows that the related anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation(including wind field,air temperature field and vertical velocity field) are nearly opposite to each other.The surface latent heat flux anomalies over the plateau(especially in the northwest of the plateau) in summer exert great influence on the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity and the surface sensible heat flux anomalies play a more important role.Consistent with the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity,the monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer also experienced a low to high transition in the late 1970 s.To some extent,this can reveal the impact of the anomalous monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer on interdecadal variation of the SAH.
MODULATION OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON TIBETAN PLATEAU VORTEX This study uses NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data,NOAA outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR) data,the real-time multivariate MJO(RMM) index from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Tibetan Plateau vortex(TPV)data from the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology to discuss modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)on the Tibetan Plateau Vortex(TPV).Wavelet and composite analysis are used.Results show that the MJO plays an important role in the occurrence of the TPV that the number of TPVs generated within an active period of the MJO is three times as much as that during an inactive period.In addition,during the active period,the number of the TPVs generated in phases 1 and 2 is larger than that in phases 3 and 7.After compositing phases 1 and 7 separately,all meteorological elements in phase 1 are apparently conducive to the generation of the TPV,whereas those in phase 7 are somewhat constrained.With its eastward propagation process,the MJO convection centre spreads eastward,and the vertical circulation within the tropical atmosphere changes.Due to the interaction between the mid-latitude and low-latitude atmosphere,changes occur in the baroclinic characteristics of the atmosphere,the available potential energy and eddy available potential energy of the atmosphere,and the circulation structures of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and surrounding areas.This results in significantly different water vapour transportation and latent heat distribution.Advantageous and disadvantageous conditions therefore alternate,leading to a significant difference among the numbers of plateau vortex in different phases.
CAUSATION ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECT CLIMATE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL ON EAST-ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON A regional climate model coupled with an aerosol model is employed to numerically simulate the direct climate effects of the anthropogenic aerosol emitted in South Asia and China in the East Asian summer monsoon during1988 to 2009.Based on the data of the numerical simulation,composite analysis and correlation analysis are used to make diagnostic study of climate dynamics.Results show that the month of maximum emission of the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in the main emission areas of South Asia is opposite in phase to that in China.Summer is the season of maximum emission amount in China,but the emission amounts are more in South Asia in spring and winter.On the whole,the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in China is relatively high compared with that in South Asia.The trend of distribution of aerosol is SW-NE in China,and Sichuan Basin is the emission center of aerosol.The effect of negative short wave radiative forcing alters the gradient of pressure between land and sea,weakening the development of East Asian summer monsoon over the northern part of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.We also discuss the feedback effect of East-Asian summer monsoon which is changed by the anthropogenic aerosol on the concentration and distribution of aerosol in China.
THERMAL FORCING IMPACTS OF THE EASTERLY VORTEX ON THE EAST-WEST SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the quasi-horizontal movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone(shortened as WPS A) during 22-25 June 2003.The relevant mechanisms are discussed as well.It is shown that the distribution and intensity of the non-adiabatic effect near the EV result in the anomalous eastward retreat of the WPSA.The WPSA prefers extending to the colder region,i.e.,it moves toward the region in which the non-adiabatic heating is weakening or the cooling is strengthening.During the WPSA retreat,the apparent changes of non-adiabatic heating illustrate the characteristics of enhanced cooling in the east side of the EV.Meanwhile,the cooling in the west side exhibits a weakened eastward trend,most prominently at 300 hPa in the troposphere.The evidence on the factors causing the change in thermal condition is found:the most important contribution to the heating-rate trend is the vertical transport term,followed in turn by the local change in the heating rate term and the horizontal advection term.As a result,the atmospheric non-adiabatic heating generated by the vertical transport and local change discussed above is mainly connected to the retreat of the WPSA.
FUTURE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER THE PEARL RIVER BASIN FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS Based on RegCM4,a climate model system,we simulated the distribution of the present climate(1961-1990)and the future climate(2010-2099),under emission scenarios of RCPs over the whole Pearl River Basin.From the climate parameters,a set of mean precipitation,wet day frequency,and mean wet day intensity and several precipitation percentiles are used to assess the expected changes in daily precipitation characteristics for the 21 st century.Meanwhile the return values of precipitation intensity with an average return of 5,10,20,and 50 years are also used to assess the expected changes in precipitation extremes events in this study.The structure of the change across the precipitation distribution is very coherent between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The annual,spring and winter average precipitation decreases while the summer and autumn average precipitation increases.The basic diagnostics of precipitation show that the frequency of precipitation is projected to decrease but the intensity is projected to increase.The wet day percentiles(q90 and q95) also increase,indicating that precipitation extremes intensity will increase in the future.Meanwhile,the5-year return value tends to increase by 30%-45%in the basins of Liujiang River,Red Water River,Guihe River and Pearl River Delta region,where the 5-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 8-to 10-year return value of the present climate,and the 50-year return value corresponds to the 100-year return value of the present climate over the Pearl River Delta region in the 2080 s under RCP8.5,which indicates that the warming environment will give rise to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events.
IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SEA FOG ON GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE FACTOR OF TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the near-surface layer(T1000 hPa-T2m)and sea fog is analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of l°xl°（2000 to 2011） and the station observations（2010 to 2011）.The element is treated as the prediction variable factor in the GRAPES model and used to improve the regional prediction of sea fog on Guangdong coastland.（1） The relationship between this factor and the occurrence of sea fog is explicit:When the sea fog happens,the value of this factor is always large in some specific periods,and the negative value of this factor decreases significantly or turns positive,suggesting the enhancement of warm and moist advection of air flow near the surface,which favors the development of sea fog.（2） The transportation of warm and moist advection over Guangdong coastland is featured by some stages and the jumping among these states.It also gets stronger over time.Meanwhile,the northward propagation of warm and moist advection is quite consistent with the northward advancing of sea fog from south to north along the coastland of China.（3） The GRAPES model can well simulate and realize the factor of near-surface temperature difference.Besides,the accuracy of regional prediction of marine fog,the relevant threat score and Heidke skill score are all improved when the factor is involved.
HEIGHT OF ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER AS DETECTED BY COSMIC GPS RADIO OCCULTATION DATA The characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer height over the global ocean were studied based on the Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC) refractivity data from 2007 to2012.Results show that the height is much characteristic of seasonal,inter-annual and regional variation.Globally,the spatial distribution of the annual mean top height shows a symmetrical zonal structure,which is more zonal in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.The boundary layer top is highest in the tropics and gradually decreases towards higher latitudes.The height is in a range of 3 to 3.5 km in the tropics,2 to 2.5 km in the subtropical regions,and 1 to 1.5 km or even lower in middle and high latitudes.The diurnal variation of the top height is not obvious,with the height varying from tens to hundreds of meters.Furthermore,it is different from region to region,some regions have the maximum height during 9:00 to 12:00,others at 15:00 to18:00.
CHARACTERISTICS OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS EFFECTS ON ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS IN DONGGUAN, GUANGDONG The structure of atmospheric boundary layer determines the ability of atmospheric dispersion and has an essential impact on airborne aerosols.In this paper,the data of a radio sounding experiment held in Dongguan National Meteorological Observation Station,which is in a coastal city in Pearl River Delta,as well as the data of atmospheric aerosols,were utilized in order to analyze the characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer and its effects on surface aerosol concentrations.The results are showed at follows:the local circulations,associated with dominant winds,made complex structures of atmospheric layers,as the cold air and systematic winds weakened in the end of a cold air event.Weakened wind shears and inversion layers,especially a strong near-surface inversion layer,remarkably diminished the atmospheric diffusion abilities and facilitated an especially high concentration of surface aerosols.The convergence line or weak shear line of sea breeze in the ground level helps weaken the atmospheric diffusion abilities and results in atmospheric aerosols accumulation.
THE RADIATIVE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS OVER CHINA AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO SOURCE EMISSION In this paper,the RIEMS 2.0 model,source emission in 2006 and 2010 are used to simulate the distributions and radiative effects of different anthropogenic aerosols over China.The comparison between the results forced by source emissions in 2006 and 2010 also reveals the sensitivity of the radiative effects to source emission.The results are shown as follows:(1) Compared with those in 2006,the annual average surface concentration of sulfate in 2010 decreased over central and eastern China with a range of-5 to 0 μg/m~3;the decrease of annual average aerosol optical depth of sulfate over East China varied from 0.04 to 0.08;the annual average surface concentrations of BC,OC and nitrate increased over central and eastern China with maximums of 10.90,11.52 and 12.50μg/m~3,respectively;the annual aerosol optical depths of BC,OC and nitrate increased over some areas of East China with extremes of 0.006,0.007 and 0.008,respectively.(2)For the regional average results in 2010,the radiative forcings of sulfate,BC,OC,nitrate and their total net radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere over central and eastern China were-0.64,0.29,-0.41,-0.33 and-1.1 W/m~2,respectively.Compared with those in 2006,the radiative forcings of BC and OC in 2010 were both enhanced,while that of sulfate and the net radiative forcing were both weakened over East China mostly.(3)The reduction of the cooling effect of sulfate in 2010 produced a warmer surface air temperature over central and eastern China;the maximum value was 0.25 K.The cooling effect of nitrate was also slightly weakened.The warming effect of BC was enhanced over most of the areas in China,while the cooling effect of OC was enhanced over the similar area,particularly the area between Yangtze and Huanghe Rivers.The net radiative effect of the four anthropogenic aerosols generated the annual average reduction and the maximum reduction were-0.096 and-0.285 K,respectively,for the surface temperature in 2006,while in 2010 they were-...